Week 1 NFL game picks: Vikings nip Packers; Seahawks surprise Russell Wilson-led Broncos

2022-09-10 00:53:00 By : Mr. Brady chen

Gregg Rosenthal will predict every game of the 2022 NFL season, and he promises to get them all right. Check out his Week 1 picks below.

The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of Noon ET on Thursday, Sept. 8 unless otherwise noted below.

Perhaps I’m overrating the preseason, but the Saints’ starting group looked on it when given the chance in August. Jameis Winston knows this scheme better than he did a year ago and his weapons are vastly improved. This rivalry is full of surprises, and Falcons coach Arthur Smith could have schematic tricks up his sleeve, which makes this point spread imposing. But New Orleans' edge up front on both sides should eventually wear down Atlanta. 

The Browns are no longer that talented. They currently rank near the league's bottom at quarterback, wide receiver, center, defensive tackle and possibly right tackle if Jack Conklin can't get healthy. The Panthers, meanwhile, are upgrading a lot of spots just from getting back healthy players (RB Christian McCaffrey, CB Jaycee Horn) and finding a competent starting quarterback. I give them a slight edge with the caveat that I'm more confident in this game being low scoring than either team winning.

Does Chicago have enough of a pass rush to make San Francisco's new-look offensive line look young? Could the Bears' patchwork line have picked a worse opponent to start the season against? All of the focus on Trey Lance has generally looked past the fact that the 49ers' defense and running game -- with Lance included -- can win games like this one without a lot of help from the forward pass.

I call it threading the needle when an underdog keeps it closer than the point spread without winning the game outright. The Steelers figure to be the threading-the-needle champions this season. They are going to win more games than expected because their defense still has that many dudes, is coached by Mike Tomlin and because the skill-position talent outside quarterback is undeniable. They will still come up short too often because of their quarterback. It's a wild world when the Bengals have the more stable QB situation and more loaded overall roster in this AFC North matchup.

In a battle of two teams that did so much right this offseason, the Lions' secondary stands out as an unaddressed area. I can't see the unit holding up against A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert when so much attention will be paid to stopping the Eagles' running game.

There will be blowouts in Week 1. But there's a reason why no team is favored by more than a touchdown across the entire league; there's so much we don't know. Can Houston's strange blend of seasoned professionals and youngsters coalesce early? Can Indianapolis' offense look better than it did in the preseason? Is Shaq Leonard really going to play in this game? The Colts outscored the Texans 62-3 last season, so a score like this would mark substantial progress for Lovie Smith's team.

Both Mike McDaniel and Matt Patricia have attempted to install similar offensive schemes this offseason. One man grew up in the system and added Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert to an offensive group whose team speed rivals any in football. The other man is Matt Patricia, who added DeVante Parker, a player the Dolphins were happy to give up. This is going to take Mac Jones some time.

It feels like Robert Saleh wants Joe Flacco to start this early AFC North gauntlet in the schedule, with Zach Wilson now out until Week 4, at least. We’ll see how the Jets coach feels after Sunday’s game, but don’t be surprised if Saleh’s defense turns this one close and ugly. New York's front four could be nasty and cornerback Sauce Gardner is part of an improved back end. They’ll make Lamar Jackson earn it. 

While the Commanders’ roster has atrophied on both lines, the Jaguars have quietly built up a solid base of young talent. Keep an eye on cornerback Tyson Campbell and safety Andre Cisco here, along with how Trevor Lawrence jells with new receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. I initially had Jacksonville winning this game, but flipped the pick when I thought about how this Washington staff is in its third season and should be further along in the program than a new Jags group, at least in Week 1.

I worry about the Giants' defense. Their edge rushers (Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari) are already banged up. Their secondary is as thin as any in football, and their coordinator, Don Martindale, loves to leave his cornerbacks on an island. The Titans might not field an explosive attack, but they have years of experience on both sides of the ball, while the G-Men are just starting a rebuilding year.

The Cardinals drew the short straw. It’s one thing to have the superior quarterback and play-caller in a shootout. It’s another when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are also buttressed by superior line play on both sides of the ball. 

On paper, the biggest roster weakness on each side of the ball belongs to Vegas, as the Raiders have serious questions along the offensive line and in the secondary, two areas the Chargers can exploit. I’m optimistic Josh McDaniels’ staff will improve both units to average, and Chargers cornerback J.C. Jackson’s expected absence should help the Raiders move the ball. These two teams feel incapable of playing a boring game.

I have no clue what will happen here. That’s true of every game all season, but each week, there’s at least one game where I know how little confidence I have beforehand and would beg off a pick if not for editors. Part of the challenge here is the Packers’ offensive line. If Elgton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari play (and play well), Green Bay has the best tackle combo in football to counteract Minnesota's edge rush duo of Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith. If not, the Vikings’ purple people could eat. 

The top two scoring teams from a season ago face budding protection problems that could slow them down. Only one of the teams, however, aggressively helped its quarterback by adding weapons this offseason. Both defensive backfields here have underrated continuity and youth, so don’t be surprised if it’s a lower-scoring game than last season’s opener, albeit with a similar result. 

Every Seahawks game this season will end 18-17, at least in Pete Carroll’s dreams. Led by a sneaky-deep group of pass rushers, the Seattle defense has a chance to hurry Russell Wilson into mistakes. The Broncos’ run defense doesn’t match up well against Rashaad Penny, but this pick is more about Carroll living out his fantasy of slowing down his former quarterback. It’s Pete’s Super Bowl, except this time he won’t pass at the goal line.

The Bills paid a premium to steal Von Miller from the Rams because Sean McDermott’s defense couldn’t get a finger on Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. While Buffalo’s pass rush should be better, the cornerback depth chart is a legitimate weakness until Tre’Davious White is back. The defending champs should not be an underdog against anyone at home in the NFL Kickoff Game, even if they are facing the preseason Super Bowl favorites. 

Follow Gregg Rosenthal on Twitter.

Visit ResponsiblePlay.org to learn more about responsible betting.

Can Joe Burrow's Bengals repeat their previous success against Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs? Will the Rams outlast the 49ers after being swept in the regular season? Gregg Rosenthal provides his picks for the AFC and NFC title games.

Last season's Super Bowl teams -- the Buccaneers and Chiefs -- are both in action on Sunday. Will either make it past the Divisional Round? Gregg Rosenthal provides his picks.

What can we expect in the latest installment of a classic playoff rivalry between the Cowboys and 49ers? Who'll win the rubber match between the Rams and Cardinals? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game on Super Wild Card Weekend.

Will the Chargers or Raiders prevail in a juicy AFC West showdown with a playoff bid on the line? Does the NFC West produce a striking upset? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game in Week 18.

Will the Bengals snap the Chiefs' win streak? Can the Cardinals stop their skid against the Cowboys? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game in Week 17.

Can the Patriots complete a sweep of the Bills? Who will prevail in a showdown for first place in the AFC North: Baltimore or Cincinnati? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game in Week 16.

Will the Seahawks keep their playoff hopes alive on the road against the Rams? Can Washington overcome its roster woes against the Eagles? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game in Week 15.

Will the Cardinals complete a season sweep of the rival Rams? Can the Buccaneers stay hot with the Bills coming to town? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game in Week 14.

Will the Patriots or Bills prevail in a battle for first place in the AFC East? Can the Broncos snap the Chiefs' four-game winning streak? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game in Week 13.

Can the Rams snap their losing streak in Green Bay? Will the Steelers come out on top in an AFC North showdown with the Bengals? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every Week 12 NFL game.

Can the Chiefs stay hot in Sunday's marquee matchup against the explosive Cowboys? Who will take a swing game in the NFC wild-card race: Saints or Eagles? Gregg Rosenthal makes his picks for every NFL game in Week 11.

You won't want to miss a moment of the 2022 season!

NFL+ gives you the freedom to watch LIVE out-of-market preseason games, LIVE local and primetime regular season and postseason games on your phone or tablet, the best NFL programming on-demand, and MORE!

© 2022 NFL Enterprises LLC. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. NFL footage © NFL Productions LLC.